Head to head

Samoa vs Tonga

If they played today

Samoa at home

58% / 23% / 19%

Samoa win / draw / Tonga win

Samoa–Tonga

1–0 11.4%
1–1 10.8%
2–0 10.3%
2–1 9.9%
3–0 6.3%

Neutral venue

50% / 25% / 26%

Samoa win / draw / Tonga win

Samoa–Tonga

1–1 11.8%
1–0 10.8%
2–1 9.5%
2–0 8.8%
0–1 7.3%

Tonga at home

42% / 26% / 32%

Samoa win / draw / Tonga win

Samoa–Tonga

1–1 12.4%
1–0 10.1%
2–1 8.8%
0–1 8.7%
1–2 7.5%

Probabilities come from each team's current Elo rating, so they answer “if they met today” rather than predicting a scheduled fixture. See the methodology for how the model works and where it is weakest.

Elo since debut

Side by side

	Samoa	Tonga
Current Elo	1216	1056
Elo rank	179th	198th
Peak Elo	1447 (1979)	1478 (1979)
Matches played	71	68
All-time record	22W 4D 45L	16W 6D 46L
Goals for	99	81
Goals against	249	253
Biggest win	10–0 vs American Samoa · 2023-11-20 · Pacific Games	7–0 vs Micronesia · 2003-07-05 · South Pacific Games
Biggest loss	0–13 vs Tahiti · 1981-07-08 · South Pacific Mini Games	0–22 vs Australia · 2001-04-09 · FIFA World Cup qualification
Neither team has qualified for a World Cup
OFC Nations Cups won	0	0
Expected OFC Nations Cups	0.03	0.00

When they've met

Meetings

Samoa 7W 3D 2L

Goals

23–11

Samoa first

First meeting

3–3

Drawn · 1983-08-22 · South Pacific Games

Most recent

2–1

Samoa won · 2024-09-09 · FIFA World Cup qualification

Samoa's biggest win

4–1

2024-03-20 · Oceania Nations Cup qualification

Tonga's biggest win

1–0

2001-04-07 · FIFA World Cup qualification

Most common result

2–0

Samoa first · 3 times, last 2019-07-12

Current run

Unbeaten in 7

Samoa · since 2002-03-09

12 meetings

Date	Score	Venue	Competition
2024-09-09	2–1	Samoa home	FIFA World Cup qualification
2024-03-20	4–1	Tonga home	Oceania Nations Cup qualification
2019-07-12	2–0	Samoa home	Pacific Games
2015-09-04	3–0	Tonga home	FIFA World Cup qualification
2011-11-24	1–1	Samoa home	FIFA World Cup qualification
2007-08-29	2–1	Samoa home	South Pacific Games
2002-03-09	2–0	Samoa home	Oceania Nations Cup qualification
2001-04-07	0–1	Neutral	FIFA World Cup qualification
1998-09-07	2–0	Neutral	Oceania Nations Cup qualification
1996-11-15	0–1	Tonga home	FIFA World Cup qualification
1994-11-25	2–2	Samoa home	Oceania Nations Cup qualification
1983-08-22	3–3	Samoa home	South Pacific Games