Head to head

Mexico vs Samoa

If they played today

Mexico at home

94% / 6% / 1%

Mexico win / draw / Samoa win

Mexico–Samoa

3–0 20.1%
2–0 19.5%
4–0 15.6%
1–0 12.6%
5–0 9.6%

Neutral venue

90% / 8% / 2%

Mexico win / draw / Samoa win

Mexico–Samoa

2–0 18.3%
3–0 17.6%
4–0 12.7%
1–0 12.6%
5–0 7.4%

Samoa at home

86% / 11% / 3%

Mexico win / draw / Samoa win

Mexico–Samoa

2–0 16.9%
3–0 15.2%
1–0 12.6%
4–0 10.2%
2–1 6.3%

Probabilities come from each team's current Elo rating, so they answer “if they met today” rather than predicting a scheduled fixture. See the methodology for how the model works and where it is weakest.

Elo since debut

Side by side

	Mexico	Samoa
Current Elo	2012	1216
Elo rank	12th	179th
Peak Elo	2044 (2026)	1447 (1979)
Matches played	1008	71
All-time record	518W 231D 259L	22W 4D 45L
Goals for	1777	99
Goals against	1057	249
Biggest win	11–0 vs Saint Vincent and the Grenadines · 1992-12-06 · FIFA World Cup qualification	10–0 vs American Samoa · 2023-11-20 · Pacific Games
Biggest loss	0–8 vs England · 1961-05-10 · Friendly	0–13 vs Tahiti · 1981-07-08 · South Pacific Mini Games
World Cups won	0	0
Expected World Cups	0.64	0.00

When they've met

Mexico and Samoa have never played each other.