Head to head

Italy vs Wales

If they played today

Italy at home

59% / 22% / 18%

Italy win / draw / Wales win

Italy–Wales

1–0 11.5%
2–0 10.6%
1–1 10.6%
2–1 9.9%
3–0 6.6%

Neutral venue

51% / 24% / 24%

Italy win / draw / Wales win

Italy–Wales

1–1 11.6%
1–0 10.9%
2–1 9.6%
2–0 9.1%
0–1 7.0%

Wales at home

43% / 26% / 31%

Italy win / draw / Wales win

Italy–Wales

1–1 12.3%
1–0 10.3%
2–1 8.9%
0–1 8.4%
2–0 7.5%

Probabilities come from each team's current Elo rating, so they answer “if they met today” rather than predicting a scheduled fixture. See the methodology for how the model works and where it is weakest.

Elo since debut

Side by side

	Italy	Wales
Current Elo	1922	1743
Elo rank	19th	52nd
Peak Elo	2140 (2021)	1904 (2021)
Matches played	893	726
All-time record	477W 243D 173L	234W 165D 327L
Goals for	1565	910
Goals against	876	1160
Biggest win	10–0 vs United States · 1975-04-02 · Friendly	11–0 vs Northern Ireland · 1888-03-03 · British Home Championship
Biggest loss	1–7 vs Hungary · 1924-04-06 · Friendly	0–9 vs Scotland · 1878-03-23 · Friendly
World Cups won	4	0
Expected World Cups	1.66	0.02
European Championships won	2	0
Expected European Championships	1.29	0.02

When they've met

Meetings

Italy 7W 0D 2L

Goals

21–5

Italy first

First meeting

4–1

Italy won · 1965-05-01 · Friendly

Most recent

1–0

Italy won · 2021-06-20 · UEFA Euro

Italy's biggest win

4–0

2003-09-06 · UEFA Euro qualification

Wales' biggest win

2–1

2002-10-16 · UEFA Euro qualification

Most common result

1–0

Italy first · twice, last 2021-06-20

Current run

Won last 2

Italy · since 2003-09-06

9 meetings

Date	Score	Venue	Competition
2021-06-20	1–0	Italy home	UEFA Euro
2003-09-06	4–0	Italy home	UEFA Euro qualification
2002-10-16	1–2	Wales home	UEFA Euro qualification
1999-06-05	4–0	Italy home	UEFA Euro qualification
1998-09-05	2–0	Neutral	UEFA Euro qualification
1988-06-04	0–1	Italy home	Friendly
1969-11-04	4–1	Italy home	FIFA World Cup qualification
1968-10-23	1–0	Wales home	FIFA World Cup qualification
1965-05-01	4–1	Italy home	Friendly