Head to head

Italy vs Tonga

If they played today

Italy at home

95% / 4% / 0%

Italy win / draw / Tonga win

Italy–Tonga

3–0 21.1%
2–0 19.6%
4–0 17.1%
1–0 12.1%
5–0 11.0%

Neutral venue

93% / 6% / 1%

Italy win / draw / Tonga win

Italy–Tonga

3–0 19.4%
2–0 19.2%
4–0 14.7%
1–0 12.6%
5–0 8.9%

Tonga at home

89% / 9% / 2%

Italy win / draw / Tonga win

Italy–Tonga

2–0 17.9%
3–0 16.9%
1–0 12.6%
4–0 11.9%
5–0 6.8%

Probabilities come from each team's current Elo rating, so they answer “if they met today” rather than predicting a scheduled fixture. See the methodology for how the model works and where it is weakest.

Elo since debut

Side by side

	Italy	Tonga
Current Elo	1922	1056
Elo rank	19th	198th
Peak Elo	2140 (2021)	1478 (1979)
Matches played	893	68
All-time record	477W 243D 173L	16W 6D 46L
Goals for	1565	81
Goals against	876	253
Biggest win	10–0 vs United States · 1975-04-02 · Friendly	7–0 vs Micronesia · 2003-07-05 · South Pacific Games
Biggest loss	1–7 vs Hungary · 1924-04-06 · Friendly	0–22 vs Australia · 2001-04-09 · FIFA World Cup qualification
World Cups won	4	0
Expected World Cups	1.66	0.00

When they've met

Italy and Tonga have never played each other.