Head to head

Italy vs Samoa

If they played today

Italy at home

91% / 8% / 1%

Italy win / draw / Samoa win

Italy–Samoa

2–0 18.4%
3–0 17.9%
4–0 13.0%
1–0 12.6%
5–0 7.6%

Neutral venue

87% / 10% / 3%

Italy win / draw / Samoa win

Italy–Samoa

2–0 17.1%
3–0 15.4%
1–0 12.6%
4–0 10.5%
2–1 6.1%

Samoa at home

81% / 13% / 5%

Italy win / draw / Samoa win

Italy–Samoa

2–0 15.6%
3–0 13.1%
1–0 12.5%
4–0 8.2%
2–1 7.7%

Probabilities come from each team's current Elo rating, so they answer “if they met today” rather than predicting a scheduled fixture. See the methodology for how the model works and where it is weakest.

Elo since debut

Side by side

	Italy	Samoa
Current Elo	1922	1216
Elo rank	19th	179th
Peak Elo	2140 (2021)	1447 (1979)
Matches played	893	71
All-time record	477W 243D 173L	22W 4D 45L
Goals for	1565	99
Goals against	876	249
Biggest win	10–0 vs United States · 1975-04-02 · Friendly	10–0 vs American Samoa · 2023-11-20 · Pacific Games
Biggest loss	1–7 vs Hungary · 1924-04-06 · Friendly	0–13 vs Tahiti · 1981-07-08 · South Pacific Mini Games
World Cups won	4	0
Expected World Cups	1.66	0.00

When they've met

Italy and Samoa have never played each other.