Head to head

Ethiopia vs Rwanda

If they played today

Ethiopia at home

40% / 26% / 33%

Ethiopia win / draw / Rwanda win

Ethiopia–Rwanda

1–1 12.4%
1–0 10.0%
0–1 8.9%
2–1 8.6%
1–2 7.7%

Neutral venue

33% / 26% / 41%

Ethiopia win / draw / Rwanda win

Ethiopia–Rwanda

1–1 12.4%
0–1 10.1%
1–0 8.8%
1–2 8.7%
2–1 7.6%

Rwanda at home

26% / 25% / 49%

Ethiopia win / draw / Rwanda win

Ethiopia–Rwanda

1–1 11.8%
0–1 10.8%
1–2 9.5%
0–2 8.7%
1–0 7.3%

Probabilities come from each team's current Elo rating, so they answer “if they met today” rather than predicting a scheduled fixture. See the methodology for how the model works and where it is weakest.

Elo since debut

Side by side

	Ethiopia	Rwanda
Current Elo	1393	1448
Elo rank	148th	128th
Peak Elo	1641 (1968)	1532 (2015)
Matches played	409	280
All-time record	144W 93D 172L	88W 74D 118L
Goals for	549	289
Goals against	595	336
Biggest win	10–2 vs Djibouti · 1954-05-01 · Friendly	9–0 vs Djibouti · 2007-12-13 · CECAFA Cup
Biggest loss	0–13 vs Iraq · 1992-08-18 · Jordan International Tournament	1–6 vs DR Congo · 1976-07-03 · Friendly
Neither team has qualified for a World Cup
African Cup of Nations won	1	0
Expected African Cup of Nations	1.67	<0.01

When they've met

Meetings

Ethiopia 4W 2D 4L

Goals

6–7

Ethiopia first

First meeting

1–0

Ethiopia won · 1981-04-26 · African Cup of Nations qualification

Most recent

1–0

Ethiopia won · 2023-03-19 · Friendly

Ethiopia's biggest win

1–0

2023-03-19 · Friendly

Rwanda's biggest win

3–1

2015-08-28 · Friendly

Most common result

1–0

Ethiopia first · 4 times, last 2023-03-19

Current run

Won the last meeting

Ethiopia · since 2023-03-19

10 meetings

Date	Score	Venue	Competition
2023-03-19	1–0	Ethiopia home	Friendly
2015-11-21	0–1	Ethiopia home	CECAFA Cup
2015-08-28	1–3	Rwanda home	Friendly
2005-12-10	1–0	Rwanda home	CECAFA Cup
2004-12-15	0–0	Ethiopia home	CECAFA Cup
2002-12-09	0–1	Neutral	CECAFA Cup
2001-12-20	1–0	Rwanda home	CECAFA Cup
2000-12-02	1–1	Neutral	Friendly
1981-05-10	0–1	Rwanda home	African Cup of Nations qualification
1981-04-26	1–0	Ethiopia home	African Cup of Nations qualification