Head to head

Ethiopia vs Mali

If they played today

Ethiopia at home

22% / 24% / 54%

Ethiopia win / draw / Mali win

Ethiopia–Mali

1–1 11.3%
0–1 11.1%
1–2 9.8%
0–2 9.6%
1–0 6.5%

Neutral venue

16% / 21% / 62%

Ethiopia win / draw / Mali win

Ethiopia–Mali

0–1 11.6%
0–2 11.2%
1–1 10.2%
1–2 9.9%
0–3 7.2%

Mali at home

12% / 19% / 69%

Ethiopia win / draw / Mali win

Ethiopia–Mali

0–2 12.8%
0–1 12.0%
1–2 9.5%
0–3 9.1%
1–1 8.9%

Probabilities come from each team's current Elo rating, so they answer “if they met today” rather than predicting a scheduled fixture. See the methodology for how the model works and where it is weakest.

Elo since debut

Side by side

	Ethiopia	Mali
Current Elo	1393	1709
Elo rank	148th	60th
Peak Elo	1641 (1968)	1773 (2024)
Matches played	409	569
All-time record	144W 93D 172L	232W 151D 186L
Goals for	549	746
Goals against	595	626
Biggest win	10–2 vs Djibouti · 1954-05-01 · Friendly	6–0 vs Eswatini · 2024-11-19 · African Cup of Nations qualification
Biggest loss	0–13 vs Iraq · 1992-08-18 · Jordan International Tournament	0–7 vs Algeria · 1988-11-13 · Friendly
Neither team has qualified for a World Cup
African Cup of Nations won	1	0
Expected African Cup of Nations	1.67	0.67

When they've met

Meetings

Ethiopia 1W 0D 1L

Goals

3–4

Ethiopia first

First meeting

0–2

Mali won · 2014-10-11 · African Cup of Nations qualification

Most recent

3–2

Ethiopia won · 2014-10-15 · African Cup of Nations qualification

Ethiopia's biggest win

3–2

2014-10-15 · African Cup of Nations qualification

Mali's biggest win

2–0

2014-10-11 · African Cup of Nations qualification

Current run

Won the last meeting

Ethiopia · since 2014-10-15

2 meetings

Date	Score	Venue	Competition
2014-10-15	3–2	Mali home	African Cup of Nations qualification
2014-10-11	0–2	Ethiopia home	African Cup of Nations qualification