Head to head

Ethiopia vs Malawi

If they played today

Ethiopia at home

41% / 26% / 33%

Ethiopia win / draw / Malawi win

Ethiopia–Malawi

1–1 12.4%
1–0 10.1%
0–1 8.8%
2–1 8.7%
1–2 7.6%

Neutral venue

33% / 26% / 40%

Ethiopia win / draw / Malawi win

Ethiopia–Malawi

1–1 12.4%
0–1 10.0%
1–0 8.9%
1–2 8.6%
2–1 7.7%

Malawi at home

26% / 25% / 49%

Ethiopia win / draw / Malawi win

Ethiopia–Malawi

1–1 11.9%
0–1 10.7%
1–2 9.4%
0–2 8.5%
1–0 7.5%

Probabilities come from each team's current Elo rating, so they answer “if they met today” rather than predicting a scheduled fixture. See the methodology for how the model works and where it is weakest.

Elo since debut

Side by side

	Ethiopia	Malawi
Current Elo	1393	1438
Elo rank	148th	137th
Peak Elo	1641 (1968)	1669 (1985)
Matches played	409	644
All-time record	144W 93D 172L	219W 182D 243L
Goals for	549	753
Goals against	595	832
Biggest win	10–2 vs Djibouti · 1954-05-01 · Friendly	8–1 vs Djibouti · 2008-05-31 · FIFA World Cup qualification
Biggest loss	0–13 vs Iraq · 1992-08-18 · Jordan International Tournament	0–12 vs Ghana · 1962-10-15 · Friendly
Neither team has qualified for a World Cup
African Cup of Nations won	1	0
Expected African Cup of Nations	1.67	0.08

When they've met

Meetings

Ethiopia 4W 7D 4L

Goals

15–13

Ethiopia first

First meeting

1–1

Drawn · 1989-03-26 · Friendly

Most recent

1–1

Drawn · 2026-06-09 · Friendly

Ethiopia's biggest win

4–0

2021-03-17 · Friendly

Malawi's biggest win

3–1

2003-10-12 · FIFA World Cup qualification

Most common result

0–0

Ethiopia first · 4 times, last 2023-06-20

Current run

Unbeaten in 3

Ethiopia · since 2023-06-20

15 meetings

Date	Score	Venue	Competition
2026-06-09	1–1	Ethiopia home	Friendly
2026-06-06	1–0	Ethiopia home	Friendly
2023-06-20	0–0	Neutral	African Cup of Nations qualification
2022-06-05	1–2	Malawi home	African Cup of Nations qualification
2021-03-17	4–0	Ethiopia home	Friendly
2014-11-19	0–0	Ethiopia home	African Cup of Nations qualification
2014-09-10	2–3	Malawi home	African Cup of Nations qualification
2011-12-02	1–1	Neutral	CECAFA Cup
2011-10-04	0–0	Ethiopia home	Friendly
2006-12-01	1–0	Ethiopia home	CECAFA Cup
2003-11-15	0–0	Malawi home	FIFA World Cup qualification
2003-10-12	1–3	Ethiopia home	FIFA World Cup qualification
1992-11-22	1–2	Neutral	CECAFA Cup
1989-03-28	1–0	Ethiopia home	Friendly
1989-03-26	1–1	Ethiopia home	Friendly