Head to head

Ethiopia vs Madagascar

If they played today

Ethiopia at home

35% / 26% / 38%

Ethiopia win / draw / Madagascar win

Ethiopia–Madagascar

1–1 12.5%
0–1 9.8%
1–0 9.4%
1–2 8.4%
2–1 8.0%

Neutral venue

28% / 25% / 46%

Ethiopia win / draw / Madagascar win

Ethiopia–Madagascar

1–1 12.0%
0–1 10.5%
1–2 9.3%
0–2 8.1%
1–0 7.8%

Madagascar at home

22% / 24% / 54%

Ethiopia win / draw / Madagascar win

Ethiopia–Madagascar

1–1 11.3%
0–1 11.1%
1–2 9.8%
0–2 9.7%
1–0 6.5%

Probabilities come from each team's current Elo rating, so they answer “if they met today” rather than predicting a scheduled fixture. See the methodology for how the model works and where it is weakest.

Elo since debut

Side by side

	Ethiopia	Madagascar
Current Elo	1393	1511
Elo rank	148th	108th
Peak Elo	1641 (1968)	1645 (1993)
Matches played	409	320
All-time record	144W 93D 172L	118W 73D 129L
Goals for	549	434
Goals against	595	484
Biggest win	10–2 vs Djibouti · 1954-05-01 · Friendly	8–1 vs Congo · 1960-04-18 · African Friendship Games
Biggest loss	0–13 vs Iraq · 1992-08-18 · Jordan International Tournament	0–7 vs DR Congo · 1965-07-19 · All-African Games
Neither team has qualified for a World Cup
African Cup of Nations won	1	0
Expected African Cup of Nations	1.67	<0.01

When they've met

Meetings

Ethiopia 3W 0D 1L

Goals

9–3

Ethiopia first

First meeting

1–0

Ethiopia won · 2010-10-10 · African Cup of Nations qualification

Most recent

4–0

Ethiopia won · 2021-03-24 · African Cup of Nations qualification

Ethiopia's biggest win

4–0

2021-03-24 · African Cup of Nations qualification

Madagascar's biggest win

1–0

2019-11-16 · African Cup of Nations qualification

Current run

Won the last meeting

Ethiopia · since 2021-03-24

4 meetings

Date	Score	Venue	Competition
2021-03-24	4–0	Ethiopia home	African Cup of Nations qualification
2019-11-16	0–1	Madagascar home	African Cup of Nations qualification
2011-10-08	4–2	Ethiopia home	African Cup of Nations qualification
2010-10-10	1–0	Madagascar home	African Cup of Nations qualification