Head to head

Ethiopia vs Italy

If they played today

Ethiopia at home

11% / 18% / 70%

Ethiopia win / draw / Italy win

Ethiopia–Italy

0–2 13.0%
0–1 12.0%
1–2 9.5%
0–3 9.3%
1–1 8.8%

Neutral venue

8% / 16% / 77%

Ethiopia win / draw / Italy win

Ethiopia–Italy

0–2 14.5%
0–1 12.3%
0–3 11.4%
1–2 8.6%
1–1 7.3%

Italy at home

5% / 13% / 83%

Ethiopia win / draw / Italy win

Ethiopia–Italy

0–2 16.0%
0–3 13.6%
0–1 12.5%
0–4 8.7%
1–2 7.4%

Probabilities come from each team's current Elo rating, so they answer “if they met today” rather than predicting a scheduled fixture. See the methodology for how the model works and where it is weakest.

Elo since debut

Side by side

	Ethiopia	Italy
Current Elo	1393	1922
Elo rank	148th	19th
Peak Elo	1641 (1968)	2140 (2021)
Matches played	409	893
All-time record	144W 93D 172L	477W 243D 173L
Goals for	549	1565
Goals against	595	876
Biggest win	10–2 vs Djibouti · 1954-05-01 · Friendly	10–0 vs United States · 1975-04-02 · Friendly
Biggest loss	0–13 vs Iraq · 1992-08-18 · Jordan International Tournament	1–7 vs Hungary · 1924-04-06 · Friendly
World Cups won	0	4
Expected World Cups	0.00	1.66

When they've met

Ethiopia and Italy have never played each other.