Head to head

Ethiopia vs Guinea

If they played today

Ethiopia at home

30% / 26% / 44%

Ethiopia win / draw / Guinea win

Ethiopia–Guinea

1–1 12.2%
0–1 10.3%
1–2 9.0%
1–0 8.3%
0–2 7.6%

Neutral venue

24% / 24% / 52%

Ethiopia win / draw / Guinea win

Ethiopia–Guinea

1–1 11.5%
0–1 11.0%
1–2 9.6%
0–2 9.2%
1–0 6.9%

Guinea at home

18% / 22% / 60%

Ethiopia win / draw / Guinea win

Ethiopia–Guinea

0–1 11.5%
0–2 10.8%
1–1 10.6%
1–2 9.9%
0–3 6.7%

Probabilities come from each team's current Elo rating, so they answer “if they met today” rather than predicting a scheduled fixture. See the methodology for how the model works and where it is weakest.

Elo since debut

Side by side

	Ethiopia	Guinea
Current Elo	1393	1579
Elo rank	148th	90th
Peak Elo	1641 (1968)	1799 (1977)
Matches played	409	539
All-time record	144W 93D 172L	200W 153D 186L
Goals for	549	730
Goals against	595	660
Biggest win	10–2 vs Djibouti · 1954-05-01 · Friendly	6–0 vs Vanuatu · 2024-03-21 · FIFA Series
Biggest loss	0–13 vs Iraq · 1992-08-18 · Jordan International Tournament	0–6 vs DR Congo · 1972-07-02 · Friendly
Neither team has qualified for a World Cup
African Cup of Nations won	1	0
Expected African Cup of Nations	1.67	0.66

When they've met

Meetings

Ethiopia 1W 2D 8L

Goals

9–25

Ethiopia first

First meeting

1–2

Guinea won · 1976-03-03 · African Cup of Nations

Most recent

0–3

Guinea won · 2024-10-15 · African Cup of Nations qualification

Ethiopia's biggest win

1–0

2002-10-13 · African Cup of Nations qualification

Guinea's biggest win

4–1

2024-10-12 · African Cup of Nations qualification

Most common result

0–3

Ethiopia first · twice, last 2024-10-15

Current run

Won last 7

Guinea · since 2003-07-06

11 meetings

Date	Score	Venue	Competition
2024-10-15	0–3	Neutral	African Cup of Nations qualification
2024-10-12	1–4	Neutral	African Cup of Nations qualification
2023-03-27	2–3	Neutral	African Cup of Nations qualification
2023-03-24	0–2	Neutral	African Cup of Nations qualification
2011-09-04	0–1	Guinea home	African Cup of Nations qualification
2010-09-05	1–4	Ethiopia home	African Cup of Nations qualification
2003-07-06	0–3	Guinea home	African Cup of Nations qualification
2002-10-13	1–0	Ethiopia home	African Cup of Nations qualification
1981-10-04	1–1	Ethiopia home	African Cup of Nations qualification
1981-06-28	2–2	Guinea home	African Cup of Nations qualification
1976-03-03	1–2	Ethiopia home	African Cup of Nations